aresh - breaking the rules in foresight forensics lyrics
iftf distinguished fellow jamais cascio
the process of forecasting, particularly scenario+based forecasting, is both creative and systematic. on the one hand, you want the scenario to engross the reader and push them to consider new angles on a topic. on the other hand, you want the forecast to be plausible. this balance can be difficult to achieve, and there are pitfalls that are simple to slip into. in 2012, i compiled a quick list of such dangers, which i then extеnded into a talk titled “bad futurism.”
thesе “rules” can also be used as a cheat sheet for foresight forensics. was the prognosis only concerned with the interests of economically and politically powerful groups? was the predicted future merely a reimagining of the present, but with more snazzy gadgets? i’ll admit that looking back at an old prediction with these rules in mind can be embarrassing at times. my article is a family member of free guest posting websites which has a large community of content creators and writers. you are warmly welcome to signup and publish a guest post with a do+follow backlink no matter in which niche you have a business. follow your favorite writers, create groups, forums, chat, and much much more!
avoiding “normative scenarios,” or forecasts that result in a predefined, typically desired future, is one of the most important precepts pounded into prospective scenario writers. imagining a future or future in which everything goes as planned is rarely +n+lytically useful. usually, our job is to show people the probable outcomes of their decisions, not just what they want to happen.information transformation services is endowing the clients with a stunning and impressive visual experience crafted by 3d modeling services .we are completely forted to offer our customers a range of appealing 3d designs that are carefully crafted to meet all types of requirements
however, disregarding the rules, even this golden one, might be beneficial at times. sometimes, only by doing something unexpected can the broader point of the forecast be made. however, i’ll have to take a break from my work at iftf to give you an ill+stration of what this could look like
let’s take a look at a set of nuclear+weapons scenarios i created
in 2015, the carnegie corporation, the william and flora hewlett foundation, the macarthur foundation, the ploughshares fund, and skoll teamed up to create the nsquare collaborative, a project funded by a coalition of the carnegie corporation, the william and flora hewlett foundation, the macarthur foundation, the ploughshares fund, and skoll. over the course of six months, i collaborated with an incredible group of professionals who were wrestling with the issue, creating five different scenarios for the year 2045. but there was a snag: each one has to come to the same conclusion: a world in which the ever+present threat of nuclear war has been successfully eliminated
the resulting set of scenarios, dubbed crossroads, can be accessed here (the pdf linked on that page makes it simpler to read). each one follows a different road to the same intended outcome. they’re not just variations on a theme; these various paths mean that the same outcome — a world free of nuclear weapons — seems substantially different each time
(please notice that each scenario has an +n+lysis section following it that discusses what kind of advances might make the situation more or less possible.) it’s well worth your time to read.)
the project’s central premise was that the functional abolition of nuclear weapons is both achievable and plausible, and that there are various paths to achieve that goal. most scenario projections start with a query like “what do we do?” and then branch out into a variety of future narratives – think of it as a widening cone of possibility. instead of asking “how do we get to what we want?” with this forecast, we’re asking “how do we get to what we want?” and the cone is practically reversed. what kinds of factors, among the many alternative futures, might lead us to this desired outcome?
the five scenarios were created using the combined +n+lysis of the project’s professionals, with the purpose of making them as realistic as feasible. as a result, even if they all end with the functional removal of nuclear weapons, the scenarios do not all lead to very “good” or “happy” futures. useful situations should have a lived+in and plausible feel to them, with their own unique set of improvements and difficulties
so, what does an ideal future look like in five quite diverse scenarios?
breakdown of forensic evidence:
the jammu disaster, in which an unexpected nuclear weapon detonation in jammu+kashmir leads to global dismantlement. unfortunately, the concept remains viable; the risk of an unintentional detonation will exist as long as weapons exist. the power of visuals and data, though, is the most striking part of this scenario. the destruction, not so much as the methods in which the close documentation of that destruction was made ubiquitous, was the impetus for larger change in the scenario. be mindful of the potential power of hundreds of millions of images and stories about a single event while using social media in scenarios; be aware of the potential power of hundreds of millions of photographs and stories about a single incident
new organisations intended to combat climate calamity are being repurposed to facilitate the elimination of nuclear weapons. this scenario, in my opinion, is the least credible of the five, and it suffers from both over+optimism about global collaboration (a recurring theme for me, as i’ve highlighted in the past) and a ludicrous name for the scenario’s new institution (“global emergency management directorate” or “gem+d”). it’s a testament to how much a minor aesthetic feature can change the outcome of a situation. still, one aspect of the scenario that seems worth keeping in mind is that we should plan for the impact of climate calamities on global legal systems
bigger issues, in which the world’s incapacity to combat climate disaster leads to desperate attempts to strengthen global security. on the other hand, this second climate+based scenario is perhaps the most realistic. the depiction of the repercussions of global warming (authored in 2015) feels all+too+real now. half+hearted attempts and misplaced blame for local disasters may practically be considered basic assumptions for every disaster scenario at this time. the impact of the immense degree of fear felt around the world appears to be the portion that is most worth looking at, especially in the context of the last 18 months
sticks & stones, in which the world abandons nuclear weapons in favour of more advanced weapons. this is, without a doubt, my favourite of the four, primarily because it defies many of the nuclear disarmament cliches – defying expectations may be a powerful technique in scenario writing. there is no “come to our senses” moment or decision to prioritise the planet’s protection over other issues here. instead, the scenario is based on the observation that, throughout history, countries have rarely given up a formidable weapon without replacing it with something even more powerful. the scenario’s weaponry + orbiting tungsten rods and weaponized asteroids — may appear to straddle the border between plausibility and ridiculousness, but they serve to stimulate debate
creating your ideal future is a big no+no in scenario building, but occasionally breaking the rules has its own merit
however, disregarding the rules, even this golden one, might be beneficial at times. sometimes, only by doing something unexpected can the broader point of the forecast be made
diplomatic fade, where decades of sporadic political efforts pay up in the end. the third scenario is perhaps the least fascinating for most readers, but it was extremely provocative to nuclear weapons experts. it’s always satisfying to watch a forecast catch the experts off guard. on the surface, it appears to be a situation of drawn+out talks, diplomatic setbacks, and, above all, patience. the controversial concept of “virtual +rs+nals” — the possibility of modest numbers of ready+to+assemble nuclear bombs — is driving it. no government would confess to having one, yet it is possible for any nuclear power to do so. the ambiguity about these +rs+nals’ existence provides the same kind of deterrence that actual weapons apparently give presently
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